What is a Prediction Market?

How people collectively forecast the future.

A prediction market is an online marketplace where people trade on the outcome of future events. By buying or selling shares tied to a specific result, traders collectively determine the likelihood of that outcome — whether it’s an election result, a championship game, or a major tech product launch.

How It Works

Maket Price = Odds

The trading price of a share reflects the crowd’s current estimate of an event’s probability. For example, if “Yes” shares for a political outcome are priced at 20¢, the market is suggesting there’s about a 20% chance of it happening.

Making Predictions

If you believe the market is undervaluing an event’s chances, you can buy shares at the current price. Example: If a team’s win shares are at 20¢ but you think their true chance is closer to 40%, you can buy now and profit if they win — each winning share pays $1.

Dynamic, Open Trading

You can adjust your position at any time before the market closes — buying more if confidence grows, or selling to lock in profit or cut losses. Market prices shift continuously as new data, news, and sentiment enter the mix.

Why Prediction Markets Work

Because every trader has real money on the line, there’s a strong incentive to be accurate rather than biased. This “skin in the game” approach produces odds that often cut through political spin, media bias, and guesswork.

Prices in a prediction market are the distilled consensus of thousands of participants — combining public news, expert insight, and crowd sentiment into one transparent signal.

Why Use Them?

Prediction markets often outperform traditional polls or expert forecasts. The diversity of traders, combined with financial motivation, tends to produce remarkably reliable probabilities in real time.

On Xmarket, you can trade on everything from sports and politics to cultural events — and if you’re right, you profit while contributing to sharper, more accurate market predictions.